Well-established wildfire smoke models such as HRRR-Smoke and BlueSky predict smoke concentrations one to three days in advance. They present these forecasts as gridded maps of modeled PM₂.₅ concentrations, hour by hour. This focus on concentration suits state air-quality agencies concerned with maximum human-health impacts. It is less useful to someone who needs to know where the plume will be over the next few hours as it meanders — whether it will cross a particular highway this afternoon, or where to place an air quality monitor tonight to capture the point of greatest impact.
Wildfire season is now well underway in the forests and rangelands of the western United States. Smoke plume forecasting is an increasingly valuable tool for giving people and agencies a “heads up” about when and where unhealthy air is likely to occur, so that action can be taken before the smoke arrives.
Rising global temperatures have increased the frequency and intensity of wildfires worldwide, especially in northern and temperate forests. These extreme fires have sparked significant legal claims affecting agriculture, forestry, tourism, and infrastructure. Accurately understanding wildfire smoke dispersion is vital in legal disputes to identify which fires caused specific impacts and to gauge their effects amid multiple simultaneous wildfires.
In recent decades, wildfire size and intensity worldwide have increased significantly alongside rising global temperatures. Scientific studies using satellite data over the past 20 years show that extreme wildfires have more than doubled in frequency and intensity globally, particularly in northern and temperate forests such as western North America, boreal forests of northern North America and Russia, and parts of Australia. These wildfires have driven significant legal actions as affected parties seek compensation for damages. The economic impact spans sectors including agriculture, forestry, tourism, and infrastructure, compounding financial pressures on communities and insurers and fueling litigation over liability and compensation. This trend is expected to persist or worsen in coming years.
Air Sciences had a significant presence at the 2024 PNWIS Annual Conference, held November 12–15 in Eugene, Oregon. The conference is the signature event of the Pacific Northwest International Section of the Air & Waste Management Association. This year, Air Sciences was proud to be a platinum conference sponsor.